How Bureau of Labor Statistics decides prediction markets
133 prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on publications from Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market doesn't decide these outcomes — the document does. ResolutionWire watches the source directly and timestamps the moment each answer exists.
AuthorityBureau of Labor Statistics
Publication scheduleBLS Employment Situation, monthly, typically first Friday, 8:30 AM ET
Open markets80
Graduated to receipts53
Crowd error at last trade10.2¢ avg (14 settled markets)
Open markets
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100k or above
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above
- Egg prices up in August? — Above 0%
- Will core CPI be above headline CPI in August 2026? — In August 2026
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 443.2
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.300
- Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 2.5%
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k
- August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP — U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 443.3
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 443.4
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 443.5
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 443.6
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 443.7
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 443.8
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 443.9
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 444.0
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 444.1
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 444.2
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 444.3
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 444.4
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 444.5
- Owners' equivalent rent for August 2026 — Above 444.6
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.350
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.400
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.450
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.500
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.550
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.600
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.650
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.700
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.750
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.800
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.850
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.900
- CPI-U index in August — Above 334.950
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.000
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.050
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.100
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.150
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.200
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.250
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.300
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.350
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.400
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.450
- CPI-U index in August — Above 335.500
- Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 2.6%
- Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 2.7%
- Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 2.8%
- Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 2.9%
- Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.0%
Resolved — the receipts
- Unemployment in August — Above 3.7%
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above -25,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 0
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.1%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.0%
- Unemployment in August — Above 3.8%
- Unemployment in August — Above 3.9%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.0%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.1%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.2%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.3%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.4%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.5%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.6%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.7%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.8%
- Unemployment in August — Above 4.9%
- Unemployment in August — Above 5.0%
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 10,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 20,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 30,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 40,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 50,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 60,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 70,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 80,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 90,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 100,000
- Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 125,000
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.2%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.3%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.4%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.5%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.6%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.7%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.8%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.9%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.0%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.1%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.2%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.3%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.4%
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.5%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.1%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.2%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.3%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.4%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.5%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.6%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.7%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.8%
- CPI core in August — Above 0.9%
- CPI core in August — Above 1.0%