RESOLUTIONWIRE · RECEIPT
Unemployment in August — Above 4.1%
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL48¢
DETECTED2026-09-04 12:30Z
SOURCEBLS
VERIFIED ✓
MARKETS ARE DECIDED
BY DOCUMENTS.
WE READ THEM FIRST
Every prediction market settles on something published — a government release, an SEC filing, a court docket. ResolutionWire watches the sources, timestamps the moment the answer exists, and records the price the market was still trading at. Every claim carries its receipt. Misses stay on the page.
278,299
markets tracked
376,649
documents archived
graded accuracy — see the ledger
13
primary sources
01
How it works
for everyoneWATCH
We poll the deciding sources
Treasury, BLS, the Fed, SEC EDGAR, courts, agencies — the documents that settle markets, checked every few minutes, seconds around scheduled releases.
CALL
The instant an answer publishes
We record the outcome it implies, the exact UTC time, and the price the market was still trading at. Before settlement, never after.
GRADE
The venue checks our work
When each market officially settles, our call is marked right or wrong — publicly. The archive is hash-chained daily, so history can't be quietly rewritten.
02
The receipts
latest callsRESOLUTIONWIRE · RECEIPT
Jobs numbers in Sep 2026? — Above 90,000
CALLYES
MARKET AT CALL46¢
DETECTED2026-10-02 12:30Z
SOURCEBLS
MISS — KEPT
RESOLUTIONWIRE · RECEIPT
7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.55% or above
CALLYES
MARKET AT CALL46¢
DETECTED2026-08-24 19:50Z
SOURCETREASURY
VERIFIED ✓
RESOLUTIONWIRE · RECEIPT
Jobs numbers in Aug 2026? — Above 30,000
CALLYES
MARKET AT CALL54¢
DETECTED2026-09-04 12:30Z
SOURCEBLS
VERIFIED ✓
RESOLUTIONWIRE · RECEIPT
2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026? — 4.21% or above
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL54¢
DETECTED2026-08-25 19:45Z
SOURCETREASURY
VERIFIED ✓
RESOLUTIONWIRE · RECEIPT
Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, 2026 — At least 210,000
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL42¢
DETECTED2026-09-03 12:30Z
SOURCECLAIMS
VERIFIED ✓
03
What knowing first is worth
for the vetsCrowd error at last trade · 35d of settled markets
| Nonfarm payrolls | 13 | 54.7¢ |
| Weekly jobless claims | 49 | 24.6¢ |
| Housing starts | 10 | 20.1¢ |
| Core CPI YoY | 15 | 17.5¢ |
| Core CPI MoM | 11 | 17.4¢ |
| Unemployment (jobs day) | 14 | 10.2¢ |
| Fed decision | 5 | 9.0¢ |
| CPI YoY | 21 | 8.7¢ |
| Treasury 30Y ladder | 60 | 6.6¢ |
| Treasury 5Y ladder | 60 | 4.4¢ |
| Fed funds ladder | 11 | 4.1¢ |
| Treasury 7Y ladder | 60 | 4.0¢ |
Deciding this week
| no scheduled resolutions in 8 days |
Crowd error = average distance between market price and eventual settlement value in the final trading hour, measured from historical candlesticks. Payrolls markets close as near coin-flips — the release resolves ~55¢ of uncertainty per contract. That distance is what reading the document first is worth.
04
The terminal
what members seeWire Alerts includes a live members' terminal — every catch the moment it happens, the price the market was still quoting, and the venue's grade when it settles. No account to create: your payment is your login. This is a real slice of it, rendered from the same database members see:
96% GRADED ACCURACY · 328 CALLS ·
AVG EDGE AT DETECTION 10¢ · SEALED NIGHTLY ON BASE
▾ 10-05 20:03Z Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?
| strike | call | at call | settle | edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027? | YES | 100¢ | — | open |
▸ 10-02 12:30Z Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
▸ 10-02 12:30Z Unemployment in September — Above 5.0%
Live data, rendered 2026-10-08 23:31Z — the terminal itself refreshes every 60 seconds. Log in with your payment → or subscribe — $19/mo.
05
Methodology
how to check usCriteria → source maps
Each market's resolution rules are parsed into the authority, document, and condition that decide it. 973 markets mapped.
Primary sources only
Calls cite the deciding document itself — never reporting about it. Every fetch stored with URL, SHA-256, and UTC timestamp.
Graded by the venue
Accuracy is computed against official settlements, automatically. Wrong calls are labeled and kept.
Tamper-evident archive
A Merkle root over all evidence is chained daily. Rewriting history would break the chain — verifiably. See the seals ↓
06
Sealed nightly, in public
the archive can't lieEvery night, a SHA-256 Merkle root over every archived document (376,112 at the latest seal) is chained to the previous night's root and written into a transaction on the Base blockchain — a timestamp nobody, including us, can edit. Each seal contains every seal before it: to rewrite one document's history we would have to break a public chain in front of you.
GENESIS
archive begins
2026-08-24
2026-08-24
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SEAL №40 · 10-06
9fcc91d44553b26627fd3a1f…
361,324 documents sealed
posting to Base tonight
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SEAL №41 · 10-07
77861615432cc237af6c7fe7…
366,526 documents sealed
posting to Base tonight
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SEAL №42 · 10-08 · LATEST
4630e27faa0675fb263c3d24…
376,112 documents sealed
posting to Base tonight
Showing the latest 8 of 42 seals. Full chain, the exact mechanism, and how to check it yourself: the proof page →