GROUNDTRUTH resolution wire
EDGAR S-1 - Serina Therapeutics, Inc. (0001708599) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1 - Live Oak Acquisition Corp. VI (0002115191) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1 - NEXTNRG, INC. (0001817004) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1/A - Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. VIII (0002146310) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1 - Essential Minerals Acquisition Corp (0002143060) (Filer)///SYSTEM coverage gap: 33 min offline (since 2026-08-24T19:50Z)///TREASURY ///EDGAR S-1/A - GridAI Technologies Corp. (0001604191) (Filer)///TREASURY ///EDGAR S-1/A - Cryptex Digital Market Cap ETF (0002115027) (Filer)///EDGAR EFFECT - Fidelity Solana Fund (0002063380) (Filer)///EDGAR EFFECT - Fidelity Ethereum Fund (0002000046) (Filer)///EDGAR EFFECT - Maase Inc. (0001750264) (Filer)///EDGAR EFFECT - INNOVATE Corp. (0001006837) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1 - Serina Therapeutics, Inc. (0001708599) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1 - Live Oak Acquisition Corp. VI (0002115191) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1 - NEXTNRG, INC. (0001817004) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1/A - Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. VIII (0002146310) (Filer)///EDGAR S-1 - Essential Minerals Acquisition Corp (0002143060) (Filer)///SYSTEM coverage gap: 33 min offline (since 2026-08-24T19:50Z)///TREASURY ///EDGAR S-1/A - GridAI Technologies Corp. (0001604191) (Filer)///TREASURY ///EDGAR S-1/A - Cryptex Digital Market Cap ETF (0002115027) (Filer)///EDGAR EFFECT - Fidelity Solana Fund (0002063380) (Filer)///EDGAR EFFECT - Fidelity Ethereum Fund (0002000046) (Filer)///EDGAR EFFECT - Maase Inc. (0001750264) (Filer)///EDGAR EFFECT - INNOVATE Corp. (0001006837) (Filer)

MARKETS ARE DECIDED
BY DOCUMENTS.
WE READ THEM FIRST

Every prediction market settles on something published — a government release, an SEC filing, a court docket. Groundtruth watches the sources, timestamps the moment the answer exists, and records the price the market was still trading at. Every claim carries its receipt. Misses stay on the page.

113,144
markets tracked
2,147
documents archived
day 1
grading begins tonight
13
primary sources
01

How it works

for everyone
WATCH

We poll the deciding sources

Treasury, BLS, the Fed, SEC EDGAR, courts, agencies — the documents that settle markets, checked every few minutes, seconds around scheduled releases.

CALL

The instant an answer publishes

We record the outcome it implies, the exact UTC time, and the price the market was still trading at. Before settlement, never after.

GRADE

The venue checks our work

When each market officially settles, our call is marked right or wrong — publicly. The archive is hash-chained daily, so history can't be quietly rewritten.

02

The receipts

latest calls
GROUNDTRUTH · RESOLUTION WIRE
10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.84% or above
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL50¢
DETECTED2026-08-24 19:50Z
SOURCETREASURY
AWAITING SETTLEMENT
GROUNDTRUTH · RESOLUTION WIRE
10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.82% or above
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL50¢
DETECTED2026-08-24 19:50Z
SOURCETREASURY
AWAITING SETTLEMENT
GROUNDTRUTH · RESOLUTION WIRE
10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.8% or above
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL50¢
DETECTED2026-08-24 19:50Z
SOURCETREASURY
AWAITING SETTLEMENT
GROUNDTRUTH · RESOLUTION WIRE
10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.78% or above
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL50¢
DETECTED2026-08-24 19:50Z
SOURCETREASURY
AWAITING SETTLEMENT
GROUNDTRUTH · RESOLUTION WIRE
10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.76% or above
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL50¢
DETECTED2026-08-24 19:50Z
SOURCETREASURY
AWAITING SETTLEMENT
GROUNDTRUTH · RESOLUTION WIRE
10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.74% or above
CALLNO
MARKET AT CALL50¢
DETECTED2026-08-24 19:50Z
SOURCETREASURY
AWAITING SETTLEMENT
03

What knowing first is worth

for the vets

Crowd error at last trade · 35d of settled markets

Nonfarm payrolls13 54.7¢
Weekly jobless claims49 24.6¢
Housing starts10 20.1¢
Core CPI YoY15 17.5¢
Core CPI MoM11 17.4¢
Unemployment (jobs day)14 10.2¢
Fed decision5 9.0¢
CPI YoY21 8.7¢
Treasury 30Y ladder60 6.6¢
Treasury 5Y ladder60 4.4¢
Fed funds ladder11 4.1¢
Treasury 7Y ladder60 4.0¢

Deciding this week

Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates U.S. Department of the Treasury245
BEA Personal Income and Outlays Bureau of Economic Analysis5

Crowd error = average distance between market price and eventual settlement value in the final trading hour, measured from historical candlesticks. Payrolls markets close as near coin-flips — the release resolves ~55¢ of uncertainty per contract. That distance is what reading the document first is worth.

04

Methodology

how to check us

Criteria → source maps

Each market's resolution rules are parsed into the authority, document, and condition that decide it. 571 markets mapped.

Primary sources only

Calls cite the deciding document itself — never reporting about it. Every fetch stored with URL, SHA-256, and UTC timestamp.

Graded by the venue

Accuracy is computed against official settlements, automatically. Wrong calls are labeled and kept.

Tamper-evident archive

A Merkle root over all evidence is chained daily. Rewriting history would break the chain — verifiably.