Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
This polymarket market is decided by a published document — not by opinion. Here is exactly what resolves it, where, and when.
Deciding authorityBureau of Economic Analysis GDP releases (Q4 advance estimate + NBER for recession variants)
Primary sourcehttps://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Resolution conditionFull-year/quarterly real GDP growth in the BEA advance estimate (or NBER declaration where applicable) satisfies the market condition.
Publication scheduleQuarterly advance estimates ~end of month following quarter; Q4 2026 advance ~late Jan 2027, 8:30 AM ET
Source-watchableYES — on the wire
Venuepolymarket · market page
Closes2027-01-29
Last price2¢
How the wire watches this market
ResolutionWire polls the deciding source directly, with burst polling around the scheduled publication. The moment the answer publishes, the wire records the implied outcome, the exact UTC timestamp, and the market's live price — before settlement, never after. Every record is hash-chained daily and graded against the venue's official result.
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