How Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP releases decides prediction markets
8 prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on publications from Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP releases (Q4 advance estimate + NBER for recession variants). The market doesn't decide these outcomes — the document does. ResolutionWire watches the source directly and timestamps the moment each answer exists.
AuthorityBureau of Economic Analysis GDP releases (Q4 advance estimate + NBER for recession variants)
Publication scheduleQuarterly advance estimates ~end of month following quarter; Q4 2026 advance ~late Jan 2027, 8:30 AM ET
Open markets8
Graduated to receipts0
Open markets
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?
- Negative GDP growth in 2026?
- US recession by end of 2026?
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?