RESOLUTIONWIREdocuments decide markets

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?

This polymarket market is decided by a published document — not by opinion. Here is exactly what resolves it, where, and when.

Deciding authorityU.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve (10 Yr column)
Primary sourcehttps://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/
Resolution condition10Y par yield crosses the stated threshold on any business day before the deadline — SAME SOURCE our treasury watcher already polls; directly evaluable.
Publication scheduleEach business day ~3:30-4:00 PM ET
Source-watchableYES — on the wire
Venuepolymarket · market page
Closes2026-12-31
Last price

How the wire watches this market

ResolutionWire polls the deciding source directly, with burst polling around the scheduled publication. The moment the answer publishes, the wire records the implied outcome, the exact UTC timestamp, and the market's live price — before settlement, never after. Every record is hash-chained daily and graded against the venue's official result.

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