US defaults on debt by 2027?
This polymarket market is decided by a published document — not by opinion. Here is exactly what resolves it, where, and when.
Deciding authorityU.S. Treasury; S&P, Moody's, Fitch default classifications
Resolution conditionUS misses a scheduled Treasury payment or a major rating agency classifies US sovereign debt as in default before the deadline.
Source-watchableYES — on the wire
Venuepolymarket · market page
Closes2026-12-31
Last price3¢
How the wire watches this market
ResolutionWire polls the deciding source directly. The moment the answer publishes, the wire records the implied outcome, the exact UTC timestamp, and the market's live price — before settlement, never after. Every record is hash-chained daily and graded against the venue's official result.
→ All markets decided by U.S. Treasury; S&P, Moody's, Fitch default classif