How U.S. Treasury decides prediction markets
1 prediction market across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on publications from U.S. Treasury; S&P, Moody's, Fitch default classifications. The market doesn't decide these outcomes — the document does. ResolutionWire watches the source directly and timestamps the moment each answer exists.
AuthorityU.S. Treasury; S&P, Moody's, Fitch default classifications
Open markets1
Graduated to receipts0
Crowd error at last trade4.4¢ avg (60 settled markets)