2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 31, 2026? — 4.32% or above
This kalshi market is decided by a published document — not by opinion. Here is exactly what resolves it, where, and when.
Deciding authorityU.S. Department of the Treasury
Resolution conditionThe Treasury's published daily par yield for the 2-year tenor on the stated date exceeds the market's strike threshold.
Publication scheduleDaily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, published each business day ~3:30-4:00 PM ET on treasury.gov
Source-watchableYES — on the wire
Venuekalshi · market page
Closes2026-08-31
How the wire watches this market
ResolutionWire polls the deciding source directly, with burst polling around the scheduled publication. The moment the answer publishes, the wire records the implied outcome, the exact UTC timestamp, and the market's live price — before settlement, never after. Every record is hash-chained daily and graded against the venue's official result.