How U.S. Department of the Treasury decides prediction markets
245 prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on publications from U.S. Department of the Treasury. The market doesn't decide these outcomes — the document does. ResolutionWire watches the source directly and timestamps the moment each answer exists.
AuthorityU.S. Department of the Treasury
Publication scheduleDaily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, published each business day ~3:30-4:00 PM ET on treasury.gov
Open markets170
Graduated to receipts75
Crowd error at last trade4.4¢ avg (60 settled markets)
Open markets
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.41% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.43% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.45% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.47% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.49% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.51% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.53% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.55% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.57% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.59% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.61% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.63% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.65% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.67% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.69% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.26% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.28% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.3% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.32% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.34% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.36% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.38% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.4% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.42% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.44% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.46% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.48% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.5% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.52% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.54% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.11% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.13% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.15% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.17% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.19% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.21% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.23% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.25% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.27% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.29% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.31% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.33% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.35% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.37% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 5.39% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.06% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.08% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.1% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.12% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.14% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.16% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.18% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.2% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.22% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.24% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.26% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.28% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.3% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.32% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 28, 2026? — 4.34% or above
Resolved — the receipts
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.41% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.43% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.45% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.47% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.49% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.51% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.53% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.55% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.57% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.59% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.61% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.63% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.65% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.67% or above
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.69% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.26% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.28% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.3% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.32% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.34% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.36% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.38% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.4% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.42% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.44% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.46% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.48% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.5% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.52% or above
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.54% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.11% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.13% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.15% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.17% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.19% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.21% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.23% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.25% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.27% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.29% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.31% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.33% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.35% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.37% or above
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.39% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.06% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.08% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.1% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.12% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.14% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.16% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.18% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.2% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.22% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.24% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.26% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.28% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.3% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.32% or above
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.34% or above