The Ledger
Every call this machine has ever made — no curation, no deletions. The price at detection is
the market's opinion the moment we read the deciding document; the settle column is the official result.
Wrong calls are marked and kept.
96%
accuracy (258/269 graded)
10¢
avg price-to-settle gap at detection
10-05 20:03ZWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 328 |
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027? |
YES |
100¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
kalshi · 13 markets · 4✓ 9✗
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 327 |
Above 125,000 |
YES |
29¢ |
— |
NO |
29¢ |
✗ kept |
| 326 |
Above 100,000 |
YES |
42¢ |
— |
NO |
42¢ |
✗ kept |
| 325 |
Above 90,000 |
YES |
46¢ |
— |
NO |
46¢ |
✗ kept |
| 324 |
Above 80,000 |
YES |
62¢ |
— |
NO |
62¢ |
✗ kept |
| 323 |
Above 70,000 |
YES |
60¢ |
— |
NO |
60¢ |
✗ kept |
| 322 |
Above 60,000 |
YES |
69¢ |
— |
NO |
69¢ |
✗ kept |
| 321 |
Above 50,000 |
YES |
73¢ |
— |
NO |
73¢ |
✗ kept |
| 320 |
Above 40,000 |
YES |
73¢ |
— |
NO |
73¢ |
✗ kept |
| 319 |
Above 30,000 |
YES |
77¢ |
— |
NO |
77¢ |
✗ kept |
| 318 |
Above 20,000 |
YES |
85¢ |
— |
YES |
16¢ |
✓ |
| 317 |
Above 10,000 |
YES |
86¢ |
— |
YES |
14¢ |
✓ |
| 316 |
Above 0 |
YES |
88¢ |
— |
YES |
12¢ |
✓ |
| 315 |
Above -25,000 |
YES |
94¢ |
— |
YES |
6¢ |
✓ |
10-02 12:30ZUnemployment in September — Above 5.0%
kalshi · 14 markets · 14✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 314 |
Above 5.0% |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 313 |
Above 4.9% |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 312 |
Above 4.8% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 311 |
Above 4.7% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 310 |
Above 4.6% |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 309 |
Above 4.5% |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 308 |
Above 4.4% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 307 |
Above 4.3% |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 306 |
Above 4.2% |
NO |
8¢ |
— |
NO |
8¢ |
✓ |
| 305 |
Above 4.1% |
YES |
33¢ |
— |
YES |
68¢ |
✓ |
| 304 |
Above 4.0% |
YES |
73¢ |
— |
YES |
27¢ |
✓ |
| 303 |
Above 3.9% |
YES |
97¢ |
— |
YES |
3¢ |
✓ |
| 302 |
Above 3.8% |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 301 |
Above 3.7% |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
10-02 12:30ZWill the US add at least 200k jobs in September?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 300 |
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in September? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in September?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 299 |
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in September? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 298 |
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 297 |
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in September?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 296 |
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in September? |
YES |
— |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in September?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 295 |
Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in September? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the US lose more than 50k jobs in September?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 294 |
Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in September? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 293 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 292 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 291 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 290 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 289 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? |
YES |
— |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 288 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 287 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 286 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
10-02 12:30ZWill the September 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 285 |
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-30 19:47ZWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 284 |
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027? |
YES |
99¢ |
98¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-28 19:47ZWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 283 |
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? |
YES |
98¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-28 19:47ZWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 282 |
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027? |
YES |
97¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-28 19:47ZWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 281 |
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027? |
YES |
99¢ |
99¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-24 19:49ZWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 280 |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027? |
YES |
99¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-24 19:49ZWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 279 |
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027? |
YES |
96¢ |
98¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-23 19:51ZWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 278 |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027? |
YES |
96¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-23 19:51ZWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 277 |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027? |
YES |
98¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-23 19:51ZWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 276 |
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027? |
YES |
92¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-16 19:54ZWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.85% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 275 |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.85% before 2027? |
YES |
90¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-15 19:53ZWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 274 |
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? |
YES |
98¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-14 19:52ZWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 273 |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027? |
YES |
94¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZCPI core in August — Above 1.0%
kalshi · 11 markets · 11✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 272 |
Above 1.0% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 271 |
Above 0.9% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 270 |
Above 0.8% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 269 |
Above 0.7% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 268 |
Above 0.6% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 267 |
Above 0.5% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 266 |
Above 0.4% |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 265 |
Above 0.3% |
NO |
8¢ |
— |
NO |
8¢ |
✓ |
| 264 |
Above 0.2% |
YES |
11¢ |
— |
YES |
89¢ |
✓ |
| 263 |
Above 0.1% |
YES |
84¢ |
— |
YES |
16¢ |
✓ |
| 262 |
Above 0.0% |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
09-11 12:30ZCore inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.5%
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 261 |
Above 3.5% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 260 |
Above 3.4% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 259 |
Above 3.3% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 258 |
Above 3.2% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 257 |
Above 3.1% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 256 |
Above 3.0% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 255 |
Above 2.9% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 254 |
Above 2.8% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 253 |
Above 2.7% |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 252 |
Above 2.6% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 251 |
Above 2.5% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 250 |
Above 2.4% |
NO |
16¢ |
— |
NO |
16¢ |
✓ |
| 249 |
Above 2.3% |
YES |
78¢ |
— |
YES |
22¢ |
✓ |
| 248 |
Above 2.2% |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 247 |
Above 2.1% |
YES |
96¢ |
— |
YES |
4¢ |
✓ |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.9% or more in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 246 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% or more in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 245 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 244 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 243 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 242 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 241 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August? |
YES |
— |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 240 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.2% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 239 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 238 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 237 |
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 236 |
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 235 |
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 234 |
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 233 |
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in August? |
YES |
— |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 232 |
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 231 |
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-11 12:30ZWill Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 230 |
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 19:58ZWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 229 |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027? |
YES |
83¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 19:58ZWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.70% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 228 |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.70% before 2027? |
YES |
98¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 227 |
Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August? |
YES |
— |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 5.0% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 226 |
Will PPI YoY be 5.0% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 4.9% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 225 |
Will PPI YoY be 4.9% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 4.8% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 224 |
Will PPI YoY be 4.8% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 4.7% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 223 |
Will PPI YoY be 4.7% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 4.6% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 222 |
Will PPI YoY be 4.6% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 4.5% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 221 |
Will PPI YoY be 4.5% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 4.4% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 220 |
Will PPI YoY be 4.4% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 4.3% in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 219 |
Will PPI YoY be 4.3% in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZWill PPI YoY be 4.2% or less in August?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 218 |
Will PPI YoY be 4.2% or less in August? |
NO |
— |
0¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-10 12:30ZInitial jobless claims for the week ending September 5, 2026 — A
kalshi · 11 markets · 11✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 217 |
At least 235,000 |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 216 |
At least 230,000 |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 215 |
At least 225,000 |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 214 |
At least 220,000 |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 213 |
At least 215,000 |
NO |
6¢ |
— |
NO |
6¢ |
✓ |
| 212 |
At least 210,000 |
NO |
11¢ |
— |
NO |
11¢ |
✓ |
| 211 |
At least 205,000 |
YES |
36¢ |
— |
YES |
64¢ |
✓ |
| 210 |
At least 200,000 |
YES |
70¢ |
— |
YES |
30¢ |
✓ |
| 209 |
At least 195,000 |
YES |
91¢ |
— |
YES |
9¢ |
✓ |
| 208 |
At least 190,000 |
YES |
95¢ |
— |
YES |
6¢ |
✓ |
| 207 |
At least 185,000 |
YES |
96¢ |
— |
YES |
4¢ |
✓ |
09-08 19:50ZWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
polymarket · 1 market · open
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 206 |
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? |
YES |
98¢ |
100¢ |
— |
|
open |
09-04 12:30ZJobs numbers in Aug 2026?
kalshi · 19 markets · 17✓ 2✗
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 205 |
Above 200,000 |
YES |
7¢ |
— |
NO |
7¢ |
✗ kept |
| 204 |
Above 175,000 |
YES |
6¢ |
— |
NO |
6¢ |
✗ kept |
| 203 |
Above 150,000 |
YES |
7¢ |
— |
YES |
94¢ |
✓ |
| 202 |
Above -50,000 |
YES |
92¢ |
— |
YES |
8¢ |
✓ |
| 201 |
Above -75,000 |
YES |
94¢ |
— |
YES |
6¢ |
✓ |
| 200 |
Above -100,000 |
YES |
97¢ |
— |
YES |
3¢ |
✓ |
| 199 |
Above 125,000 |
YES |
10¢ |
— |
YES |
91¢ |
✓ |
| 198 |
Above 100,000 |
YES |
16¢ |
— |
YES |
85¢ |
✓ |
| 197 |
Above 90,000 |
YES |
17¢ |
— |
YES |
83¢ |
✓ |
| 196 |
Above 80,000 |
YES |
22¢ |
— |
YES |
79¢ |
✓ |
| 195 |
Above 70,000 |
YES |
40¢ |
— |
YES |
60¢ |
✓ |
| 194 |
Above 60,000 |
YES |
36¢ |
— |
YES |
64¢ |
✓ |
| 193 |
Above 50,000 |
YES |
74¢ |
— |
YES |
26¢ |
✓ |
| 192 |
Above 40,000 |
YES |
56¢ |
— |
YES |
44¢ |
✓ |
| 191 |
Above 30,000 |
YES |
54¢ |
— |
YES |
46¢ |
✓ |
| 190 |
Above 20,000 |
YES |
66¢ |
— |
YES |
34¢ |
✓ |
| 189 |
Above 10,000 |
YES |
64¢ |
— |
YES |
36¢ |
✓ |
| 188 |
Above 0 |
YES |
74¢ |
— |
YES |
26¢ |
✓ |
| 187 |
Above -25,000 |
YES |
79¢ |
— |
YES |
21¢ |
✓ |
09-04 12:30ZUnemployment in August — Above 5.0%
kalshi · 14 markets · 14✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 186 |
Above 5.0% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 185 |
Above 4.9% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 184 |
Above 4.8% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 183 |
Above 4.7% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 182 |
Above 4.6% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 181 |
Above 4.5% |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 180 |
Above 4.4% |
NO |
3¢ |
— |
NO |
3¢ |
✓ |
| 179 |
Above 4.3% |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 178 |
Above 4.2% |
NO |
22¢ |
— |
NO |
22¢ |
✓ |
| 177 |
Above 4.1% |
NO |
48¢ |
— |
NO |
48¢ |
✓ |
| 176 |
Above 4.0% |
YES |
86¢ |
— |
YES |
14¢ |
✓ |
| 175 |
Above 3.9% |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 174 |
Above 3.8% |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 173 |
Above 3.7% |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
09-03 12:30ZInitial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, 2026 — At
kalshi · 11 markets · 11✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 172 |
At least 230,000 |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 171 |
At least 225,000 |
NO |
4¢ |
— |
NO |
4¢ |
✓ |
| 170 |
At least 220,000 |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 169 |
At least 215,000 |
NO |
7¢ |
— |
NO |
7¢ |
✓ |
| 168 |
At least 210,000 |
NO |
42¢ |
— |
NO |
42¢ |
✓ |
| 167 |
At least 205,000 |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 166 |
At least 200,000 |
YES |
84¢ |
— |
YES |
16¢ |
✓ |
| 165 |
At least 195,000 |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 164 |
At least 190,000 |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 163 |
At least 185,000 |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 162 |
At least 180,000 |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
08-27 12:35ZInitial jobless claims for the week ending August 22, 2026 — At
kalshi · 11 markets · 11✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 161 |
At least 230,000 |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 160 |
At least 225,000 |
NO |
8¢ |
— |
NO |
8¢ |
✓ |
| 159 |
At least 220,000 |
NO |
12¢ |
— |
NO |
12¢ |
✓ |
| 158 |
At least 215,000 |
NO |
13¢ |
— |
NO |
13¢ |
✓ |
| 157 |
At least 210,000 |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 156 |
At least 205,000 |
NO |
80¢ |
— |
NO |
80¢ |
✓ |
| 155 |
At least 200,000 |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 154 |
At least 195,000 |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 153 |
At least 190,000 |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 152 |
At least 185,000 |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 151 |
At least 180,000 |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
08-25 19:45Z10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 150 |
4.89% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 149 |
4.87% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 148 |
4.85% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 147 |
4.83% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 146 |
4.81% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 145 |
4.79% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 144 |
4.77% or above |
NO |
25¢ |
— |
NO |
25¢ |
✓ |
| 143 |
4.75% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 142 |
4.73% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 141 |
4.71% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 140 |
4.69% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 139 |
4.67% or above |
NO |
3¢ |
— |
NO |
3¢ |
✓ |
| 138 |
4.65% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 137 |
4.63% or above |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 136 |
4.61% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
08-25 19:45Z2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 135 |
4.39% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 134 |
4.37% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 133 |
4.35% or above |
NO |
6¢ |
— |
NO |
6¢ |
✓ |
| 132 |
4.33% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 131 |
4.31% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 130 |
4.29% or above |
NO |
7¢ |
— |
NO |
7¢ |
✓ |
| 129 |
4.27% or above |
NO |
7¢ |
— |
NO |
7¢ |
✓ |
| 128 |
4.25% or above |
NO |
7¢ |
— |
NO |
7¢ |
✓ |
| 127 |
4.23% or above |
NO |
6¢ |
— |
NO |
6¢ |
✓ |
| 126 |
4.21% or above |
NO |
54¢ |
— |
NO |
54¢ |
✓ |
| 125 |
4.19% or above |
NO |
95¢ |
— |
NO |
95¢ |
✓ |
| 124 |
4.17% or above |
YES |
97¢ |
— |
YES |
3¢ |
✓ |
| 123 |
4.15% or above |
YES |
95¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 122 |
4.13% or above |
YES |
95¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 121 |
4.11% or above |
YES |
95¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
08-25 19:45Z30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 120 |
5.39% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 119 |
5.37% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 118 |
5.35% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 117 |
5.33% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 116 |
5.31% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 115 |
5.29% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 114 |
5.27% or above |
NO |
8¢ |
— |
NO |
8¢ |
✓ |
| 113 |
5.25% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 112 |
5.23% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 111 |
5.21% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 110 |
5.19% or above |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 109 |
5.17% or above |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 108 |
5.15% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 107 |
5.13% or above |
YES |
95¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 106 |
5.11% or above |
YES |
95¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
08-25 19:45Z5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 105 |
4.59% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 104 |
4.57% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 103 |
4.55% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 102 |
4.53% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 101 |
4.51% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 100 |
4.49% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 99 |
4.47% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 98 |
4.45% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 97 |
4.43% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 96 |
4.41% or above |
NO |
7¢ |
— |
NO |
7¢ |
✓ |
| 95 |
4.39% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 94 |
4.37% or above |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 93 |
4.35% or above |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 92 |
4.33% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 91 |
4.31% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
08-25 19:45Z7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 90 |
4.69% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 89 |
4.67% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 88 |
4.65% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 87 |
4.63% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 86 |
4.61% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 85 |
4.59% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 84 |
4.57% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 83 |
4.55% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 82 |
4.53% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 81 |
4.51% or above |
NO |
3¢ |
— |
NO |
3¢ |
✓ |
| 80 |
4.49% or above |
NO |
40¢ |
— |
NO |
40¢ |
✓ |
| 79 |
4.47% or above |
YES |
— |
— |
YES |
|
✓ |
| 78 |
4.45% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 77 |
4.43% or above |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
3¢ |
✓ |
| 76 |
4.41% or above |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
3¢ |
✓ |
08-24 19:50Z10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 75 |
4.84% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 74 |
4.82% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 73 |
4.8% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 72 |
4.78% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 71 |
4.76% or above |
NO |
8¢ |
— |
NO |
8¢ |
✓ |
| 70 |
4.74% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 69 |
4.72% or above |
NO |
20¢ |
— |
NO |
20¢ |
✓ |
| 68 |
4.7% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 67 |
4.68% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 66 |
4.66% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 65 |
4.64% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 64 |
4.62% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 63 |
4.6% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 62 |
4.58% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 61 |
4.56% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
08-24 19:50Z2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 60 |
4.34% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 59 |
4.32% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 58 |
4.3% or above |
NO |
5¢ |
— |
NO |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 57 |
4.28% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 56 |
4.26% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 55 |
4.24% or above |
YES |
88¢ |
— |
YES |
12¢ |
✓ |
| 54 |
4.22% or above |
YES |
96¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 53 |
4.2% or above |
YES |
96¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 52 |
4.18% or above |
YES |
95¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 51 |
4.16% or above |
YES |
95¢ |
— |
YES |
6¢ |
✓ |
| 50 |
4.14% or above |
YES |
97¢ |
— |
YES |
4¢ |
✓ |
| 49 |
4.12% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 48 |
4.1% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 47 |
4.08% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 46 |
4.06% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
08-24 19:50Z30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 45 |
5.39% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 44 |
5.37% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 43 |
5.35% or above |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 42 |
5.33% or above |
NO |
— |
— |
NO |
|
✓ |
| 41 |
5.31% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 40 |
5.29% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 39 |
5.27% or above |
NO |
2¢ |
— |
NO |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 38 |
5.25% or above |
NO |
8¢ |
— |
NO |
8¢ |
✓ |
| 37 |
5.23% or above |
YES |
96¢ |
— |
YES |
4¢ |
✓ |
| 36 |
5.21% or above |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 35 |
5.19% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 34 |
5.17% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 33 |
5.15% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 32 |
5.13% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 31 |
5.11% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
08-24 19:50Z5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 30 |
4.54% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 29 |
4.52% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 28 |
4.5% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 27 |
4.48% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 26 |
4.46% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 25 |
4.44% or above |
NO |
4¢ |
— |
NO |
4¢ |
✓ |
| 24 |
4.42% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 23 |
4.4% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 22 |
4.38% or above |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 21 |
4.36% or above |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 20 |
4.34% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 19 |
4.32% or above |
YES |
98¢ |
— |
YES |
2¢ |
✓ |
| 18 |
4.3% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 17 |
4.28% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 16 |
4.26% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
08-24 19:50Z7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026?
kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓
| № | Strike | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | Edge | |
|---|
| 15 |
4.69% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 14 |
4.67% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 13 |
4.65% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 12 |
4.63% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 11 |
4.61% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 10 |
4.59% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 9 |
4.57% or above |
NO |
1¢ |
— |
NO |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 8 |
4.55% or above |
YES |
46¢ |
— |
YES |
54¢ |
✓ |
| 7 |
4.53% or above |
YES |
96¢ |
— |
YES |
5¢ |
✓ |
| 6 |
4.51% or above |
YES |
99¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 5 |
4.49% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 4 |
4.47% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 3 |
4.45% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 2 |
4.43% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
| 1 |
4.41% or above |
YES |
100¢ |
— |
YES |
1¢ |
✓ |
One row per release: open a catch for the full ladder of strikes it decided. "At call" is the
venue's live price at the moment of detection — recorded before settlement, never after. Blank prices are shown
as — rather than estimated. "Edge" is the distance from the price at detection to the settled value. The archive
behind every row is sealed nightly on the Base blockchain — the proof.