The Ledger

Every call this machine has ever made — no curation, no deletions. The price at detection is the market's opinion the moment we read the deciding document; the settle column is the official result. Wrong calls are marked and kept.

205

calls on record

releases caught

99%

accuracy (203/205 graded)

9¢

avg price-to-settle gap at detection

09-04 12:30ZJobs numbers in Aug 2026? kalshi · 19 markets · 17✓ 2✗

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
205	Above 200,000	YES	7¢	—	NO	7¢	✗ kept
204	Above 175,000	YES	6¢	—	NO	6¢	✗ kept
203	Above 150,000	YES	7¢	—	YES	94¢	✓
202	Above -50,000	YES	92¢	—	YES	8¢	✓
201	Above -75,000	YES	94¢	—	YES	6¢	✓
200	Above -100,000	YES	97¢	—	YES	3¢	✓
199	Above 125,000	YES	10¢	—	YES	91¢	✓
198	Above 100,000	YES	16¢	—	YES	85¢	✓
197	Above 90,000	YES	17¢	—	YES	83¢	✓
196	Above 80,000	YES	22¢	—	YES	79¢	✓
195	Above 70,000	YES	40¢	—	YES	60¢	✓
194	Above 60,000	YES	36¢	—	YES	64¢	✓
193	Above 50,000	YES	74¢	—	YES	26¢	✓
192	Above 40,000	YES	56¢	—	YES	44¢	✓
191	Above 30,000	YES	54¢	—	YES	46¢	✓
190	Above 20,000	YES	66¢	—	YES	34¢	✓
189	Above 10,000	YES	64¢	—	YES	36¢	✓
188	Above 0	YES	74¢	—	YES	26¢	✓
187	Above -25,000	YES	79¢	—	YES	21¢	✓

09-04 12:30ZUnemployment in August — Above 5.0% kalshi · 14 markets · 14✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
186	Above 5.0%	NO	—	—	NO		✓
185	Above 4.9%	NO	—	—	NO		✓
184	Above 4.8%	NO	—	—	NO		✓
183	Above 4.7%	NO	—	—	NO		✓
182	Above 4.6%	NO	—	—	NO		✓
181	Above 4.5%	NO	—	—	NO		✓
180	Above 4.4%	NO	3¢	—	NO	3¢	✓
179	Above 4.3%	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
178	Above 4.2%	NO	22¢	—	NO	22¢	✓
177	Above 4.1%	NO	48¢	—	NO	48¢	✓
176	Above 4.0%	YES	86¢	—	YES	14¢	✓
175	Above 3.9%	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
174	Above 3.8%	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
173	Above 3.7%	YES	—	—	YES		✓

09-03 12:30ZInitial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, 2026 — At kalshi · 11 markets · 11✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
172	At least 230,000	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
171	At least 225,000	NO	4¢	—	NO	4¢	✓
170	At least 220,000	NO	—	—	NO		✓
169	At least 215,000	NO	7¢	—	NO	7¢	✓
168	At least 210,000	NO	42¢	—	NO	42¢	✓
167	At least 205,000	YES	98¢	—	YES	2¢	✓
166	At least 200,000	YES	84¢	—	YES	16¢	✓
165	At least 195,000	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
164	At least 190,000	YES	—	—	YES		✓
163	At least 185,000	YES	98¢	—	YES	2¢	✓
162	At least 180,000	YES	—	—	YES		✓

08-27 12:35ZInitial jobless claims for the week ending August 22, 2026 — At kalshi · 11 markets · 11✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
161	At least 230,000	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
160	At least 225,000	NO	8¢	—	NO	8¢	✓
159	At least 220,000	NO	12¢	—	NO	12¢	✓
158	At least 215,000	NO	13¢	—	NO	13¢	✓
157	At least 210,000	NO	—	—	NO		✓
156	At least 205,000	NO	80¢	—	NO	80¢	✓
155	At least 200,000	YES	—	—	YES		✓
154	At least 195,000	YES	—	—	YES		✓
153	At least 190,000	YES	—	—	YES		✓
152	At least 185,000	YES	—	—	YES		✓
151	At least 180,000	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓

08-25 19:45Z10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
150	4.89% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
149	4.87% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
148	4.85% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
147	4.83% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
146	4.81% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
145	4.79% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
144	4.77% or above	NO	25¢	—	NO	25¢	✓
143	4.75% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
142	4.73% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
141	4.71% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
140	4.69% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
139	4.67% or above	NO	3¢	—	NO	3¢	✓
138	4.65% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
137	4.63% or above	YES	—	—	YES		✓
136	4.61% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓

08-25 19:45Z2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
135	4.39% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
134	4.37% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
133	4.35% or above	NO	6¢	—	NO	6¢	✓
132	4.33% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
131	4.31% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
130	4.29% or above	NO	7¢	—	NO	7¢	✓
129	4.27% or above	NO	7¢	—	NO	7¢	✓
128	4.25% or above	NO	7¢	—	NO	7¢	✓
127	4.23% or above	NO	6¢	—	NO	6¢	✓
126	4.21% or above	NO	54¢	—	NO	54¢	✓
125	4.19% or above	NO	95¢	—	NO	95¢	✓
124	4.17% or above	YES	97¢	—	YES	3¢	✓
123	4.15% or above	YES	95¢	—	YES	5¢	✓
122	4.13% or above	YES	95¢	—	YES	5¢	✓
121	4.11% or above	YES	95¢	—	YES	5¢	✓

08-25 19:45Z30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
120	5.39% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
119	5.37% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
118	5.35% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
117	5.33% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
116	5.31% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
115	5.29% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
114	5.27% or above	NO	8¢	—	NO	8¢	✓
113	5.25% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
112	5.23% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
111	5.21% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
110	5.19% or above	NO	—	—	NO		✓
109	5.17% or above	YES	—	—	YES		✓
108	5.15% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	2¢	✓
107	5.13% or above	YES	95¢	—	YES	5¢	✓
106	5.11% or above	YES	95¢	—	YES	5¢	✓

08-25 19:45Z5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
105	4.59% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
104	4.57% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
103	4.55% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
102	4.53% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
101	4.51% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
100	4.49% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
99	4.47% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
98	4.45% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
97	4.43% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
96	4.41% or above	NO	7¢	—	NO	7¢	✓
95	4.39% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
94	4.37% or above	NO	—	—	NO		✓
93	4.35% or above	YES	—	—	YES		✓
92	4.33% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
91	4.31% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓

08-25 19:45Z7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 25, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
90	4.69% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
89	4.67% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
88	4.65% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
87	4.63% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
86	4.61% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
85	4.59% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
84	4.57% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
83	4.55% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
82	4.53% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
81	4.51% or above	NO	3¢	—	NO	3¢	✓
80	4.49% or above	NO	40¢	—	NO	40¢	✓
79	4.47% or above	YES	—	—	YES		✓
78	4.45% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
77	4.43% or above	YES	98¢	—	YES	3¢	✓
76	4.41% or above	YES	98¢	—	YES	3¢	✓

08-24 19:50Z10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
75	4.84% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
74	4.82% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
73	4.8% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
72	4.78% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
71	4.76% or above	NO	8¢	—	NO	8¢	✓
70	4.74% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
69	4.72% or above	NO	20¢	—	NO	20¢	✓
68	4.7% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
67	4.68% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
66	4.66% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
65	4.64% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
64	4.62% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
63	4.6% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
62	4.58% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
61	4.56% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓

08-24 19:50Z2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
60	4.34% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
59	4.32% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
58	4.3% or above	NO	5¢	—	NO	5¢	✓
57	4.28% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
56	4.26% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
55	4.24% or above	YES	88¢	—	YES	12¢	✓
54	4.22% or above	YES	96¢	—	YES	5¢	✓
53	4.2% or above	YES	96¢	—	YES	5¢	✓
52	4.18% or above	YES	95¢	—	YES	5¢	✓
51	4.16% or above	YES	95¢	—	YES	6¢	✓
50	4.14% or above	YES	97¢	—	YES	4¢	✓
49	4.12% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
48	4.1% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
47	4.08% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
46	4.06% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓

08-24 19:50Z30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
45	5.39% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
44	5.37% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
43	5.35% or above	NO	—	—	NO		✓
42	5.33% or above	NO	—	—	NO		✓
41	5.31% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
40	5.29% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
39	5.27% or above	NO	2¢	—	NO	2¢	✓
38	5.25% or above	NO	8¢	—	NO	8¢	✓
37	5.23% or above	YES	96¢	—	YES	4¢	✓
36	5.21% or above	YES	98¢	—	YES	2¢	✓
35	5.19% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
34	5.17% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
33	5.15% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
32	5.13% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
31	5.11% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓

08-24 19:50Z5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
30	4.54% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
29	4.52% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
28	4.5% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
27	4.48% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
26	4.46% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
25	4.44% or above	NO	4¢	—	NO	4¢	✓
24	4.42% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
23	4.4% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
22	4.38% or above	YES	98¢	—	YES	2¢	✓
21	4.36% or above	YES	98¢	—	YES	2¢	✓
20	4.34% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	2¢	✓
19	4.32% or above	YES	98¢	—	YES	2¢	✓
18	4.3% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
17	4.28% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
16	4.26% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓

08-24 19:50Z7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? kalshi · 15 markets · 15✓

№	Strike	Call	At call	+60m	Settled	Edge
15	4.69% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
14	4.67% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
13	4.65% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
12	4.63% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
11	4.61% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
10	4.59% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
9	4.57% or above	NO	1¢	—	NO	1¢	✓
8	4.55% or above	YES	46¢	—	YES	54¢	✓
7	4.53% or above	YES	96¢	—	YES	5¢	✓
6	4.51% or above	YES	99¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
5	4.49% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
4	4.47% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
3	4.45% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
2	4.43% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓
1	4.41% or above	YES	100¢	—	YES	1¢	✓

One row per release: open a catch for the full ladder of strikes it decided. "At call" is the venue's live price at the moment of detection — recorded before settlement, never after. Blank prices are shown as — rather than estimated. "Edge" is the distance from the price at detection to the settled value. The archive behind every row is sealed nightly on the Base blockchain — the proof.