The Ledger
Every call this machine has ever made — no curation, no deletions. The price at detection is the market's opinion the moment we read the deciding document; the settle column is the official result. Wrong calls are marked and kept.
75
calls on record
100%
accuracy (75/75 graded)
3¢
avg price-to-settle gap at detection
| № | Detected (UTC) | Venue | Market | Call | At call | +60m | Settled | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.84% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 74 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.82% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 73 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.8% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 72 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.78% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 71 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.76% or above | NO | 8¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 70 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.74% or above | NO | 2¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 69 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.72% or above | NO | 20¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 68 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.7% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 67 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.68% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 66 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.66% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 65 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.64% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 64 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.62% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 63 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.6% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 62 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.58% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 61 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.56% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 60 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.34% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 59 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.32% or above | NO | 5¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 58 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.3% or above | NO | 5¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 57 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.28% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 56 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.26% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 55 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.24% or above | YES | 88¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 54 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.22% or above | YES | 96¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 53 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.2% or above | YES | 96¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 52 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.18% or above | YES | 95¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 51 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.16% or above | YES | 95¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 50 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.14% or above | YES | 97¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 49 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.12% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 48 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.1% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 47 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.08% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 46 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 2Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.06% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 45 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.39% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 44 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.37% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 43 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.35% or above | NO | — | — | NO | ✓ |
| 42 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.33% or above | NO | — | — | NO | ✓ |
| 41 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.31% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 40 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.29% or above | NO | 2¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 39 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.27% or above | NO | 2¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 38 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.25% or above | NO | 8¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 37 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.23% or above | YES | 96¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 36 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.21% or above | YES | 98¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 35 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.19% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 34 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.17% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 33 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.15% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 32 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.13% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 31 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 5.11% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 30 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.54% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 29 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.52% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 28 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.5% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 27 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.48% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 26 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.46% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 25 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.44% or above | NO | 4¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 24 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.42% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 23 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.4% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 22 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.38% or above | YES | 98¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 21 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.36% or above | YES | 98¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 20 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.34% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 19 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.32% or above | YES | 98¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 18 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.3% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 17 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.28% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 16 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.26% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 15 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.69% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 14 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.67% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 13 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.65% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 12 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.63% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 11 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.61% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 10 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.59% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 9 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.57% or above | NO | 1¢ | — | NO | ✓ |
| 8 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.55% or above | YES | 46¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 7 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.53% or above | YES | 96¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 6 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.51% or above | YES | 99¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 5 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.49% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 4 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.47% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 3 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.45% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 2 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.43% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
| 1 | 2026-08-24 19:50Z | kalshi | 7Y US Treasury yield on Aug 24, 2026? — 4.41% or above | YES | 100¢ | — | YES | ✓ |
"At call" is the venue's live price at the moment of detection — recorded before settlement, never after. Blank prices are shown as — rather than estimated. The archive behind every row is hash-chained daily; rewriting history would break the chain, verifiably.