How Federal Reserve decides prediction markets
82 prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on publications from Federal Reserve (FOMC statement and implementation note). The market doesn't decide these outcomes — the document does. ResolutionWire watches the source directly and timestamps the moment each answer exists.
AuthorityFederal Reserve (FOMC statement and implementation note)
Publication scheduleFOMC statement, 2:00 PM ET on scheduled meeting days (next: Sep 16, 2026)
Open markets82
Graduated to receipts0
Open markets
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 2.75%
- Fed decision in Sep 2026? — Cut >25bps
- Fed decision in Sep 2026? — Cut 25bps
- Fed decision in Sep 2026? — Fed maintains rate
- Fed decision in Sep 2026? — Hike >25bps
- How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting? — 0
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Kevin Warsh
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — John Williams
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Philip Jefferson
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Michelle Bowman
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Christopher Waller
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Michael Barr
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Jerome Powell
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Lisa Cook
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Beth Hammack
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Anna Paulson
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Lorie Logan
- Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Neel Kashkari
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 3.3%
- Will the Fed publish a dot plot in September 2026? — In September 2026
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 3.00%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 3.25%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 3.50%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 3.75%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 4.00%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 4.25%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 4.50%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 4.75%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 5.00%
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 5.25%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 3.4%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 3.5%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 3.6%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 3.7%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 3.8%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 3.9%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 4.0%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 4.1%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 4.2%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 4.3%
- Fed median dot plot in September 2026 — Above 4.4%
- Fed decision in Sep 2026? — Hike 25bps
- How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting? — 1
- How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting? — 2
- How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting? — 3
- How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting? — 4
- How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting? — 5
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?