How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026? — Above 0.1%

This kalshi market is decided by a published document — not by opinion. Here is exactly what resolves it, where, and when.

Deciding authorityBureau of Economic Analysis

Primary sourcehttps://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-p

Resolution conditionThe month-over-month change in core PCE reported in the BEA Personal Income and Outlays release satisfies the strike condition.

Publication scheduleBEA Personal Income and Outlays, monthly, 8:30 AM ET

Source-watchableYES — on the wire

Venuekalshi · market page

Closes2026-08-26

How the wire watches this market

ResolutionWire polls the deciding source directly, with burst polling around the scheduled publication. The moment the answer publishes, the wire records the implied outcome, the exact UTC timestamp, and the market's live price — before settlement, never after. Every record is hash-chained daily and graded against the venue's official result.

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