How U.S. federal courts decides prediction markets

2 prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on publications from U.S. federal courts (dockets via PACER/CourtListener). The market doesn't decide these outcomes — the document does. ResolutionWire watches the source directly and timestamps the moment each answer exists.

Open markets

• Will a New York Times reporter be federally charged over Air Force One reporting? — B kalshi · closes 2026-09-01
• Will David Hearn be charged again in connection with the Reflecting Pool? — Before Se kalshi · closes 2026-09-01